USD 12 billion, if the year-end goes smoothly

Oct 26, 2026, Market watch

USD 12 billion, if the year-end goes smoothly. That is the milestone VASEP pointed to on October 19. Vietnam's seafood sector is standing at that door. In the first eight months, shrimp reached USD 3.29 billion, up 12.3% year on year. Shrimp accounts for about 41% of total seafood export value. China is the main growth driver. Imports of Vietnamese shrimp rose 37.6% in the eight months. But that door will not open by itself. Each remaining month needs about USD 1 billion. The US remains the hardest market at present. Tariffs run 2.5 percentage points higher than competitors'. Do not just count the USD 12 billion milestone. Count whether peak-season orders arrive on schedule. Count whether deeply processed goods hold their prices. Count whether new markets open any further. A big milestone does not turn into real money by itself. Only real orders turn into real money. The market answers later; orders answer first.

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