Coffee has just had a week that was a very clear reminder

Oct 27, 2026, Viewpoint

Coffee has just had a week that was a very clear reminder. Central Highlands prices fell below VND 90,000/kg. The week before, they were still at VND 92,100–93,000/kg. One week wiped out VND 3,100–3,500/kg. The London exchange fell in step. November Robusta futures dropped to USD 3,228/ton, down 5.4% on the week. The reason is not hard to guess. The new harvest in the Central Highlands is accelerating. More product is reaching the market. But look further than one week and the picture is even clearer. In the first nine months, exports reached nearly 1.4 million tons of coffee, up 15.4% in volume. But export value came to only USD 6.54 billion, down 7.3% in value. Average export prices fell 19.7%. Selling more but earning less. That is the trap of raw commodities. The 2025–2026 crop year shows the way out. Deeply processed coffee reached about USD 1.5 billion, up 14% in value. Meanwhile green coffee beans rose 21.4% in volume, yet fell 1.5% in value. The same coffee bean. Deep processing holds its price. Selling raw means accepting the floor price. Do not count export tons. Count the share of deep processing. Selling more is not enough; only selling deeper holds the price.

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